Investment Lesson

Benjamin Graham, one of the early followers of fundamental analysis based investing and also Warren Buffett’s professor, had propounded the concept of Mr. Market way back in the nineteen forties to describe the contradictory and irrational traits of investors. Graham described Mr. Market as an investor prone to erratic swings of pessimism and optimism and since majority of the stock market is comprised of such investors, he felt that the market as a whole takes on these characteristics. His advice was that while Mr.

March 2020 was one of the worst months for equity market. Indian indices witnessed massive sell-off in line with global equities sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic and potential economic damage amid lock-down worldwide. Large cap based index, Nifty 50 dropped by over 23% and broad-based index, Nifty 500 fell by a little over 24%. Mid cap and Small cap benchmarks vis., Nifty Midcap 100 index fell over 30% and Nifty Smallcap 100 index dropped by over 36%.

Back in my school days I used to mug up reams and reams of chemical formulas, not knowing if I would ever use them in the future. In the investing world those esoteric formulas, now seem rather meaningless. However, one concept that is still stuck in my head is that of an Isotope which I likely encountered in Class IX or X. The concept of ‘elements’ is the very foundation of Chemistry. An Isotope of an element is a similar atom with same number of protons but different neutrons.

The outbreak of COVID-19 is being referred to as a “once in a century event” and has heightened uncertainty for many companies which have to deal with the prospect of a significant drop in their cash flows. The longer the pandemic persists, greater the risks as leveraged businesses might find it hard to service the debt or access credit.

On July 31, 2020, the Nifty Pharma index has hit a 52-week high levels. This no doubt gives us great satisfaction considering that the Pharmaceutical sector is the largest overweight sector position in UTI Value Opportunities Fund (the Fund). Even as many of our portfolio companies were battered by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, this index has bounced nearly 79% from its low in Mar-2020.

As the fund manager of UTI Value Opportunities Fund, I often wonder if it would be more palatable to many investors if we called the fund ‘UTI Opportunities Fund’ (as it was once called) because the word ‘Value’ in the name of the fund has become unappealing to some.

In the Ramayana; Kumbhakarna is described as having been cursed to sleep for 6 months at a time. If only we investors had the same ability. If we had fallen asleep at the end of February 2020 and then woken up at the end of August 2020, it would appear that nothing much had happened. After all the Nifty 50 closed at 11201 at the end of February 2020 and at the end of August 2020 it was only marginally changed at 11387.

This is a regular question that I get asked at meetings with investors and mutual fund distributors. It is even more common today as markets have moved up to a record high and valuations have pushed significantly higher. This question presupposes that I have the skills to discern the risks in the market. Blessed as I am with a worrying & skeptical nature, I see risks all the time. But, the problem with risk is that the biggest and market disrupting risks are those that I cannot see. Worse they are the unknown unknowns.