“Are we in an AI bubble and, if so, what impact could it have on global equity markets?”
This remains the most commonly asked question among investors today. While it is always difficult to predict cycles, one can still hold an informed view of where we stand in the current cycle. Most parallels are being drawn to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s and the years leading up to it.
The Indian markets are trading weaker following the outbreak of hostilities in the Persian Gulf. This is a continuation of the subdued trend that has persisted since early 2024. The Nifty has fallen 6.65% (in USD terms) over the two-year period from April 2024 to April 2026. During the same period, the S&P 500 delivered a return of 43.16%, while the MSCI EM Index posted returns of 52.99%. Importantly, both these indices are denominated in US dollars.
Many investors are grappling with the uncertainty caused by the West Asia conflict. The objectives are unclear and the mixed messaging from the US administration is keeping Iran, as well as the global economy and markets, on tenterhooks.
