Knowledge Hub

Is it really different this time?

There’s a famous line often attributed to Mark Twain – ‘History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes’.

Now that I have your attention with that clickbait headline, let’s get down to the truth!

If you are planning to invest in mutual funds, then just knowing about a scheme isn’t enough. Whether you are an experienced investor or a beginner, it is important for you to know the various terms and metrics used to measure fund performance. Among the various terms used, trailing returns and rolling returns assess how well a mutual fund has performed over time.

Fixed income funds have delivered strong returns over the past two years as inflation declined sharply from the post-pandemic surge of 2022–23. This disinflationary impulse enabled central banks to pivot decisively towards monetary easing, with 211 and 189 policy rate cuts recorded by global central banks in 2024 and 2025, respectively, well above the post-GFC peak of 181 cuts in 2009 (Source: Bloomberg).

When interest rates rise, existing bonds become less valuable and most debt fund NAVs fall. When rates fall, those same bonds are worth more and debt fund NAVs typically rise. Equity funds, on the other hand, feel the impact through valuations and earnings expectations: higher interest rates compress P/E multiples and raise discount rates; lower rates do the opposite.

Liquidity as the New Driver of Market Dynamics

Gold is often praised as a protection against inflation, but it’s important to remember that correlation is not causation. Throughout my career, I have observed that gold offers reasonable protection against inflation. It is not a perfect hedge, but it is better than most alternatives for those who wish to protect themselves from inflation risk.

For years, Indian car buyers have prioritised mileage, with hatchbacks and sedans symbolising urban aspirations. Yet, even then, Multi-Purpose Vehicles (MPVs) held their ground – valued for their space, power and durability.

The Indian Rupee (INR) has been on a weaker trajectory in 2025, depreciating by 3.7% against the US Dollar as of September 30, 2025. This comes even as the US Dollar Index has declined by around 10% against other major currencies. Consequently, the INR’s fall against key global currencies has been even more pronounced.

Policy Action

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.5%.